A lonestar in california

Alright, here we go: I’ve finally found the time to type up my fabled draft piece here at the 11th hour. Yes, I know I should have gotten to this much earlier, I apologize for making all my readers wait so long – so without further adeu, lets get started.

First of all, I should probably admit that I’m not much of a draft-monger, and my knowledge of the 2008 draft class doesn’t really extend much beyond the first round. There have been enough mock-drafts by sites such as Minor League Ball run in the last few weeks with enough different results to fill a 2,000 page dictionary with discussion, so I’m not even going to try and recap them all - instead, I’ll just focus on my humble opinions regarding the draft, and some of the prominent players who might go around the Rangers pick.

First of all, the basics: the Rangers draft at #11 this season, and according to TR Sullivan, although the Rangers management wants to take the best player available, they are still looking for “a college pitcher who can move quickly through [the] farm system” and would settle for another Tommy Hunter-like arm. In other words, make a “safe” pick, and sacrifice ceiling for more garunteed production.

That’s a philosophy I’m not sure I agree with – the objective of the draft should be to take the best player available period, and considering that the 2008 draft class is considered weaker than that of years past, I don’t know that there’s a whole lot of room to try and cherry pick your criteria for the first round. The Rangers shouldn’t be short-changing themselves just because they want a guy who they think can be in the Majors within a couple years – that’s the type of impatience that’s cost the Rangers talent in the past.

So, with that in mind, here’s a few compositions/opinions on some of the top picks that have been mentioned for the #11 spot.

High schoolers

First up is Eric Hosmer, a first baseman for American Heritage high school in FLA. Hosmer is considered a very advanced hitter for his age, the best HS bat in the years draft. He’s got good bat speed, increasing pop, and is also considered a good defender. He can even throw 90 MPH heat off the mound, although he’s not technically a pitching prospect. So, if he’s so awesome, why would he still be around at #11? Well, as Mike Hindman explained recently, Hoss is a Scott Boras client who will be looking for a considerable signing bonus. That’s far from a grantee that he will drop that far though (the Florida Marlins reportedly like him at #6) but if he indeed is still around #11, he’s the one guy I would pick over all others. Maybe this is shooting a bit high, but in my wilder dreams, I could see Hosmer becoming a left-handed version of Mark Teixeira.

Another guy whose ceiling really excites me is RHP Ethan Martin from Stephens Country HS, GA. Martin’s a former power-hitting 3B who only fairly recently shot onto the first-round radar as a pitcher, so he’s a little raw, but his stuff seems to be the real deal already. He throws a 91-96 MPH four seamer, and two strikeout pitches, a plus power curve (79-82 MPH) and a pretty good splitter. He also seems to have fairly good control for a guy with such a power arsenal. Bottom line, Martin is a power pitcher whose high ceiling makes up for his lack of predictability. This is the type of arm I’d like to see more of in the Rangers system – aside from Blake Beavan and Neftali Feliz, I don’t see that we really have any guys with this kind of stuff in the system right now.

One guy that the Rangers probably won’t sign, but is worth a mention is right-hander Gerrit Cole. Cole, who hails from Orange Lutheran HS, CA (right in my backyard, waddya know), has pure, unadulterated electric stuff, but has some serious makeup and signability issues. He throws a fastball with good movement that he can dial up to 95-98 MPH, and sits at about 92-94. He also sports a slider which projects to become a plus pitch down the road, and a developing changeup. He’s also got good control and feel for a HS’er. The knocks on him are his attitude – he’s been known to be “animated” on and off the mound in the past – and his mechanics, which seem a bit rough at this point. He’s also a Scott Boras client, which just adds to the questions about his signability. I really, really like the potential Cole’s ability presents, but he’d be a project to develop for whoever takes him. Not only would he require a mechanical overhaul, but you’d have to calm him down, and teach him to work with his teammates better. In my opinion, it would probably be worth the work in the end to the team that got him, but the Rangers don’t seem to want to put that much work into a high school guy right now - and I don’t see why they would either if they could just go and draft Ethan Martin.

Another HS’er you shouldn’t forget about is Aaron Hicks, from Woodrow Wilson high, CA. Hicks, a right-handed thrower and switch hitter is the do it all type, a tremendous athletewith the potential to develop all 5 tools as an OF’er, and he has also shown some mid-90’s stuff with movement on the pitchers mound. The problem with him is, despite his vast athletic potential, but he has yet to really realize any of it it yet. He might hake an interesting pick though, if the Rangers can’t find a high-end arm at #11.

College guys

College players are always considered the ”safer” pick, and one that looks to be in line with what the Rangers seem to want in a projectable college arm would be Christian Friedrich of Eastern Kentucky U. Friedrich is a four-pitch lefty, who relies primarily on an above-average 12-6 curveball. His fastball is 88-93, but without a whole lot of movement yet, and he also throws a slider/cutter pitch at 83-85, along with an average changeup. His control is known to be inconsistent and slightly below average, and doesn’t project to be much more – this is my beef with Friedrich, whose command is essential to his success. I’m betting he may be the most likely pick for the Rangers, as he’s like a projectable guy who could rise through the farm system fast, even though his stuff won’t likely make him a top-of-the-rotation starter. As for my opinion, I want to see the Rangers shoot a little higher in the first round than a guy who seems like another Matt Harrison-type prospect. Which isn’t really bad,it’s just kind of blahse for a first round-pick, IMO.

If the Rangers are really dead-set on a college pitcher, Tulane righty Shooter Hunt seems like a better option to me. Hunt’s got two very good fastballs that range from 90-95, a four seamer that sits at about 93, and a two seamer with good movement. He also throws an excellent curveball, and is supposed to have a fairly solid changeup. Shooter’s knock is his control, which can be very erratic – when he’s on though, he has the high-ceiling stuff that could make him a top-of-the-rotation guy, and also has excellent mound presence. Which is why, between Friedrich/Hunt, I’d much rather have Shooter – oh, and because ”Shooter Hunt” is just a freakin’ awesome name. I kinda wish my name was Shooter Hunt now.

If you like to dream, some mock drafts have had University of Missouri righty Aaron Crow dropping to the Rangers. This seems extremely unlikely to actually happen, as Crow is widely regarded as one of the top college pitchers in the draft, and if it does, there will undoubtedly be some serious signing bonus demands to meet. But it might be worth it, though – Crow has a 93-96 MPH fastball, and shows the ability to take that velocity deep into games. He’s got a good power slider and the makings of a quality changeup as well, giving him three plus pitches to work with. He’s got good control as well, pounding the zone with his fastball, and he knows how to work the corners already. Bottom line, he’s the kind of talent the Rangers will have to go aggressively after if he falls to #11 - he’s the exact kind of college arm they want, only with top-end potential - but theres not much likelihood that he will, so I’m not getting my hopes up too much.

While we’re dreaming, I might as well mention University of Miami first baseman Yonder Alonso. Alonso’s a big left-handed slugger, who projects at about 30 home runs per year down the road. He’s extremely patient at the plate, and draws a lot of walks, and he’s already good at hitting to the opposite field. In fact, he probably needs work on pulling the ball more to generate more power. He’s only an adequate first baseman though, which is the only position he can play, which might be the only serious thing you can hold against this guy. The chances of him dropping to us seem like practically zero though – if it’s already a long shot that Eric Hosmer will drop to #11, I don’t see how Alonso will drop that far, unless his contract demands are really, really outlandish.

Last, I should mention for the heck of it Texas Christian’s Andrew Cashner, who the DFW papers seem to enjoy profiling, and who was reportedly been connected to Nolan Ryan (although those rumors have since been disproven). Cashneris a two pitch closer, who came out of nowhere this past year to start throwing in the high-90’s, up to 97/98 MPH. He does have command issues, and he’s doesn’t really seem to have the stamina to be a starter, which is what the Rangers would want to convert him to should they take him. In my opinion, if the Rangers pick him over any of the guys listed above, it will be a waste of our first round pick – he’s just not worth a #11 pick in the draft.

Now that I’ve given you the scouting reports, here’s my own personal “draft board”:

1. Aaron Crow - I doubt he falls to us, but if he does, I think we have to take him.
2. Yonder Alonso – I really doubt he’ll be there, but if he is, It’d be a tough toss-up between him and Hosmer.
3. Eric Hosmer - The only guy in this top three we probably have a legitimate shot at.
4. Ethan Martin – I love this kids power arsenal. If they take any of the college arms besides Crow over him, I’ll be slightly ticked.
5. Shooter Hunt - I love that name. And the stuff, despite the lack of control.
6. Gerrit Cole - He’d be a project, but I love the ceiling. Toss-up between him and Hicks for 6-7.
7. Aaron Hicks – I love his ceiling as well, although he doesn’t appear to have really defined himself as a player yet. Again, toss up between him and Cole for 6-7.
8. Christian Friedrich – Everything about this guy just screams “average” to me.
9. Andrew Cashner – Only if none of the above 9 are on the board.
10. Brett Wallace – First baseman for Ariziona State, I didn’t mention him above due to time constraints, but basically, he’s a damn good hitter, with some good power and discipline – the only problem is, his defense is limited because he’s kind of a fatty.

As for my actual prediction, I’m gonna say the Rangers wind up with Christian Friedrich, and I wind up pissed off because they left Ethan Martin and/or Shooter Hunt on the board.

But don’t take my word for it - I highly recommend going and checking out some other previews that are much, much better than my amateur attempt here, such as Joey Matschulat’s or Evan Grant’s.

I don’t have time for my usual game recap and and rundown of the news tonight, but since I whiffed on getting this draft piece out yesterday afternoon, I thought I’d best get it done tonight. It wasn’t much of a game to be writing about anyway – we got hammered. There where some roster moves I’m sure you’re aware of by now, that I’ll have more on tommorrow hopefully. I’ll try to update as we make our picks this afternoon, but well – look what happened the last two times I said I’d write something in the afternoon.