A lonestar in california

The Rangers have made their first round pick. And it is even better than I could have thought it would be.

The Rangers have drafted University of South Carolina’s Justin Smoak at #11 in the first round. This comes as a bit of a surprise, because pretty much nobody thought he would drop as low as #11 – this guy is better than Yonder Alonso, and better than Eric Hosmer – we just made a huge steal here, folks.

As Keith Law put it in his first round analysis:

This is the best pick in the draft so far. Smoak is the third-best player on my board. He’s a switch-hitting Adrian Gonzalez with more power. In the Rangers’ ballpark, he has a good chance to hit 40 home runs, if he develops. There are no major holes in his game. I saw this scenario possibly unfolding last night. A lot of things had to go right for them to get Smoak, and they did.

Offensively, Smoak isa potent switch-hitter, who covers the entire zone from both sides of the plate, and who could project at 35-40 HR’s in the future. Remember what I said about dreaming that Hosmer might be the next Mark Teixeira-type earlier? Well, forget it: Justin Smoak is the next Mark Teixeira type.

Here is what Saberscouting.com has to say about Smoak (they ranked him at #6 on their list of top 100 prospects):

6. Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Bio: 6′4, 215, Bats B, Throws L, 21 years old
The Skinny: Aside from Pedro Alvarez, Smoak may be the most potent bat in this draft class. To go along with tremendous upside at the plate, the switch hitting first baseman also is a plus defender at first base with a good arm. He also has raked for three years at South Carolina and in the Cape Cod League after his freshman year, but had some trouble making contact with Team USA after his sophomore year. Many think his swing will need some adjustments to using wood, but just about every college hitter does. Smoak displays plus power to all fields and projects as a relatively safe power bat, especially after yet another big year for the Gamecocks.
Pros: Bat, Power, Defense
Cons: Can Only Play 1B
Comparison:Switch-Hitting Paul Konerko
Adjusted OFP: 59

 And is just gets better in Baseball America’s scouting report (they ranked him #8 on their top 100):

A switch-hitting first baseman with power, Smoak draws natural comparisons to Mark Teixiera. Drafted out of high school in the 16th round by the Athletics, he has started every game for SouthCarolina since arriving on the Columbia campus, doing nothing but produce. After batting .303 with 17 home runs, Smoak earned Freshman All-America honors. He followed that with a .315 batting average and 22 home runs in his sophomore year—enough to be tabbed as a third team All-American. He also competed for Team USA last summer.

As a first baseman, Smoak has Gold Glove-caliber actions and soft hands. His footwork and instincts around the bag are advanced and his arm strength is adequate. As a hitter, he is consistent from both sides of the plate, and he has superior pitch recognition. A power threat against any pitch, Smoak has the ability to hit to all fields. Smoak proved his power translates to wood when he hit 11 home runs in 39 games while playing in the Cape Cod League following his freshman year, though he struggled with Team USA last summer. He is thought to be the best combination of offense and defense at first base in this draft class.

Plus bat, plus defense – this is even better than I could have hoped, myself. The Rangers did exactly what I wanted: took the best player available. As an advanced college bat, Smoak has a chance to be producing in the bigs by late ‘09 at the earliest, although 2010 is probably more reasonable – having him, Chris Davis and Max Ramirez all competing over the 1B/DH slot in 2010 would be a pretty nice problem to have. He’s even got the “cool name factor” working for him – I can already see the “Rangers Smoak Angels” headlines from a couple years down the road.

Of course, we’ve got to sign him first – a subject about which Smoak had this to say:

“I’m ready,” Smoak told The State (S.C.) newspaper this week, “I’ve been here for three years, and you never know, I could definitely be back here for a fourth year. … If you’re going to ask me if I want to sign, I can’t tell you it’s no. … But you just never know what’s really going to happen.”

That’s a somewhat cryptic quote, but I have to believe that the Rangers will make sure they get this guy – as mentioned in my draft preview the Rangers have been pretty aggressive in signing their picks in the past few years. If for some odd reason Smoak does get away however, it will be a huge, huge disappointment – which is exactly why I doubt it will happen.

Taking a quick look at where some other guys I mentioned yesterday landed:

• Eric Hosmer went to the Royals at #3
• Aaron Crow went to the Nationals at #9
• Ethan Martin went to the Dodgers at #15 – and as a third baseman, not a pitcher (which is suprising).
• Andrew Cashner went to the Cubs at #19
• Christian Friedrich went to the Rockies at #25
• Gerrit Cole, whom it is rumored the Rangers would have taken if Smoak had not been there, dropped all the way to the Yankees at #28 – wow.
• Shooter Hunt just went to the Twins as the first pick of the Comp A round.

I have no idea who the Rangers might draft in the second round, but I’ll have the name when it breaks. In the meantime, I’m gonna go off and daydream about how awesome Smoak could turn out to be.